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The Global Food Security Crisis: A CommandEleven Intelligence Series

The Global Food Security Crisis: A CommandEleven Intelligence Series

  • UPDATED: October 16, 2026

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)

El Niño, Hormuz fertilizer, a diesel shortage and a closed Black Sea are hitting food systems at once. A region-by-region assessment of who is exposed and who has a plan.

Bottom Line Up Front

For the first time in modern memory, four separate shocks are hitting the world’s food system at once:

  1. A record El Niño. The central Pacific’s September temperature anomaly of 2.9°C is the highest ever measured, and forecasters expect a peak near 3.7°C in December, with effects lasting into 2027.
  2. A fertilizer shock from Hormuz. The strait normally carries about a third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer, including 34% of traded urea. Urea prices doubled within weeks of the February closure.
  3. A diesel shortage. The International Energy Agency now expects it to last into 2027. Wholesale diesel hit about $220 a barrel in September; diesel runs the tractors, irrigation pumps and trucks that move food.
  4. A closed Black Sea. Attacks on both sides’ ports have cut Russian and Ukrainian grain exports, which normally supply about 27% of the world’s wheat trade, to a fraction of normal.

The FAO Food Price Index rose to 136.0 in September, its highest since November 2022, with cereals up 17.2% in a year. That is the early signal. Most of the damage is still in the pipeline: crops planted with less fertilizer, harvests hit by El Niño, and lean seasons that peak between early and late 2027.

CommandEleven Intelligence’s United States series showed how these shocks reach American households. This series applies the same analysis to every other major region of the world, using one consistent track so the regions can be compared directly. The finding that runs through all of them: almost every government is reacting to the crisis, and very few have a plan for the next twelve months.

Key Judgments

KJ1: The 2026 food shock is a stacked crisis, not a single one. Each of the four drivers would be serious alone. Together they hit cost (fertilizer, diesel), supply (El Niño, the Black Sea) and logistics at the same time. [ASSESSED]

KJ2: The worst is still ahead. Fertilizer cut back this year shows up in next year’s yields, and FEWS NET places the peak of El Niño-driven hunger between February and September 2027 for most regions, and into early 2028 for Southern Africa. [CONFIRMED on forecasts; ASSESSED on timing]

KJ3: Exposure follows import dependence and conflict, not wealth alone. Rich Gulf states face empty shelves because their food comes through two contested chokepoints; poor exporters like Argentina face falling incomes rather than hunger. [ASSESSED]

KJ4: Africa carries the heaviest combined exposure. It is the only region exposed to all four drivers at a high level, and it holds the world’s worst crisis in Sudan. [ASSESSED]

KJ5: Aid will not close the gap. Funding for food assistance, emergency agriculture and nutrition fell an estimated 59% between 2022 and 2025, before this crisis began. [CONFIRMED]

The Global Scorecard

Each region is rated against the four drivers on a four-step scale: Low, Moderate, High and Severe. The ratings are CommandEleven Intelligence assessments, explained in each regional part. [ASSESSED]

The Global Food Security Crisis: Global Scorecard
RegionEl NiñoFertilizerDieselBlack Sea grainOverallPeak risk window
United States (baseline)ModerateModerateHighLowModerateWinter 2026–27
North America (Canada, Mexico)ModerateLowHighLowModerateWinter 2026–27
Central America and CaribbeanSevereModerateHighLowHighFeb–Aug 2027
South AmericaModerateHighModerateLowModerateDec 2026–Mar 2027
EuropeModerateHighHighHighModerate2027 harvest
Middle East and Arab WorldModerateModerateHighHighHighNow through 2027
AfricaSevereHighHighHighSevereMar 2027–Mar 2028
East and Southeast AsiaHighModerateHighLowHighOct 2026–Mar 2027
Indian SubcontinentHighHighHighModerateHighJan–Mar 2027
Australia and the PacificHighHighHighLowModerate (Australia); High (Pacific islands)Summer 2026–27

The Four Drivers

1. El Niño. The World Meteorological Organization classifies this event as strong and intensifying. The September anomaly in the key Niño 3.4 region was a record 2.9°C, beating 2015 and 1877, and on October 5 the region’s sea temperature passed 30°C for the first time on record. The WMO expects drier-than-normal conditions over the Indian subcontinent, southern and eastern Australia, southern Central America and the Caribbean, northwestern South America and northern Europe, and wetter conditions in the Greater Horn of Africa, southern Europe and southeastern South America. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast on top, which can amplify drought and flood risk around the Indian Ocean. [CONFIRMED]

2. Fertilizer. According to WTO data, the Strait of Hormuz normally carries about a third of globally traded seaborne fertilizer: roughly 34% of urea, 23% of ammonia and nearly 20% of phosphate. The Gulf also supplies 40% to 45% of global sulfur exports, a key input for phosphate fertilizer. Urea went from about $400 a tonne before the war to above $850 in April, then eased to about $453 by June as shipping partly resumed and China reopened exports. But the damage was done in the planting seasons: farmers who could not afford or find fertilizer applied less, and that shows up in yields. [CONFIRMED]

3. Diesel. The IEA’s October report says the diesel shortage will last into 2027, with inventories not recovering until the second half of that year. Combined Middle East and Russian diesel exports are down more than 60% from a year ago. US pump prices passed $6 a gallon in September, and the EU average hit a record €2.23 a liter. Diesel runs irrigation pumps in South Asia, fishing fleets, tractors and the trucks that carry food to market. In many African markets, transport makes up 30% to 50% of the final price of food. [CONFIRMED]

4. The Black Sea. This driver was not in our original framing, but it can no longer be left out. Ukrainian strikes have taken an estimated 70% of Russia’s grain export capacity offline, including all three grain terminals at Novorossiysk, and Russian attacks have all but stopped ship traffic from Ukraine’s ports. Russian wheat shipments fell to about 1.0 million tonnes in September, against 5.7 million a year earlier; Ukraine’s wheat exports fell 55%. Meanwhile the US is harvesting its smallest wheat crop since 1972 after a Plains drought. [CONFIRMED]

The Global Food Security Crisis: Four Drivers

Where the World Stands

  • 266 million people in 47 countries faced high levels of acute food insecurity in 2025, according to the Global Report on Food Crises, before the 2026 shocks. 1.4 million were in catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), and famine was confirmed in both Gaza and parts of Sudan.
  • The June FAO-WFP Hunger Hotspots report named six countries of highest concern: Sudan, South Sudan, Yemen, Gaza, Nigeria and Somalia. Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Haiti were rated very high concern; Myanmar, Mali, Lebanon and Madagascar were also listed.
  • Conflict was the main driver of hunger for 147 million people in 2025; extreme weather for 87.5 million. In 2026, both are rising at once.

How This Series Works

Every regional part follows the same five-step analysis track, so readers can compare one region directly with another:

  1. The Four Drivers: the region’s exposure to El Niño, fertilizer, diesel and the Black Sea.
  2. Import Dependence: how much of its food and farm inputs the region brings in, and through which routes.
  3. How Governments Are Responding: what has actually been done, as opposed to announced.
  4. Flashpoints: where food stress is most likely to turn into unrest, displacement or conflict.
  5. The 12-Month Outlook: what to expect through late 2027, and the indicators to watch.

Claims are marked CONFIRMED, ASSESSED or SPECULATIVE in line with CommandEleven Intelligence’s standard practice.

The Missing Plan

Across the regions, the pattern of response is strikingly similar: fuel tax cuts, price caps, export bans, emergency stock releases and appeals for aid. These are crisis tools. Very few governments have published a plan that connects fertilizer supply for the next planting season, fuel for the next harvest and food stocks for the next lean season. The Arab League’s call on October 5 for a regional early-warning system for food, water and climate security is one of the few attempts to plan ahead, and it is still a proposal. That gap, between reacting and planning, is the central finding of this series. [ASSESSED]

Sources

The Global Food Security Series

Start with the United States baseline: Food Chain Reaction Revisited and The 12-Month Fuse.

  1. Global Food Security: North America – Part 1
  2. Global Food Security: Central America and the Caribbean – Part 2
  3. Global Food Security: South America – Part 3
  4. Global Food Security: Europe – Part 4
  5. Global Food Security: The Middle East and Arab World – Part 5
  6. Global Food Security: Africa – Part 6
  7. Global Food Security: East and Southeast Asia – Part 7
  8. Global Food Security: The Indian Subcontinent – Part 8
  9. Global Food Security: Australia and the Pacific – Part 9
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CommandEleven Intelligence Desk

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CommandEleven Intelligence Desk

The CommandEleven Intelligence Desk // CommandEleven is a specialized geopolitical and security consulting firm providing strategic insight and tactical advantage in non-permissive environments. Managed by a directorate of seasoned intelligence analysts, military professionals, and regional specialists, the firm utilizes formalized analytical frameworks—including PMESII-PT and the Intelligence Cycle—to deliver high-fidelity risk assessments and crisis resolution. Since its formation, CommandEleven has maintained a zero-trust architecture for global HUMINT operations and tactical asset management across contested theaters.
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