Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)
This page keeps CommandEleven Intelligence’s public scorecard: every call we have formally scored against the record, in one place, with the misses alongside the hits. Twenty calls have been scored across four audits so far. Eight are confirmed, four partially confirmed, three not confirmed and five not yet resolved. A further set of calls is registered with due dates and will be scored when those dates arrive. The record is updated whenever a new audit publishes and reviewed in full each quarter. We publish it because analysis is only worth what it gets right before the fact, and that claim means nothing unless the misses are on the page too.
How the Record Works
Every audit on this page uses the same rules, set out in full in the GCTA Foresight Audit introduction.
- The original call is quoted and dated. An audit scores what we actually published, on the date we published it, and links to the original post.
- Scores rest on evidence published after the call. Primary institutional evidence (UN Monitoring Team reports, FATF publications, government records) carries the most weight. Nothing is scored CONFIRMED on a single secondary report.
- Convergence is not influence. When an official body reaches the same conclusion, we record independent confirmation. We never claim it relied on our work without a documented citation.
- Misses stay on the record. A call that did not hold is scored, explained and kept on this page. Where a miss exposes a flaw in the analysis, the audit says what changes.
- Pending calls are left alone. A call that has not resolved is listed as open. It is not counted as a hit, and it is not promoted as a likely one.
| Score | Meaning |
|---|---|
| CONFIRMED | Evidence published after the call shows it has materialized as stated |
| PARTIALLY CONFIRMED | The core of the call held, but a material element was wrong or is unverified |
| NOT YET RESOLVED | Not enough evidence either way, or the call’s time window has not closed |
| NOT CONFIRMED | The evidence points the other way |
The China-Iran audit used “Not borne out” for its one miss; it is counted here as NOT CONFIRMED. Baseline facts (statements about the situation at the time, rather than calls about what would happen) are marked VERIFIED, REVISED or UNVERIFIED and are kept out of the forecast totals.
The Running Totals
| Audit | Published | Calls scored | Confirmed | Partial | Not confirmed | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GCTA Foresight Audit, Part 1: Financing and the Stealth State | October 2026 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| GCTA Foresight Audit, Part 2: The Indian Subcontinent | October 2026 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Our China-Iran War Calls, Scored Honestly | October 8, 2026 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| The Sahel Collapse series: Mali, on the record | October 15, 2026 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Total | 20 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
Of the 15 calls that can now be judged, eight held as stated, four held in part and three did not.
The Audits
GCTA Foresight Audit, Part 1: Financing and the Stealth State
Scores five terrorist-financing forecasts from the April 2026 Global Counter-Terrorism Assessment (GCTA) against UN and FATF evidence.
- Confirmed: affiliates fund themselves through local economies rather than donors; hawala-crypto bridges are a core channel, as FATF’s September 3 report found.
- Partially confirmed: al-Qaeda as a “venture capital firm” for its franchises. UN reporting shows money flowing up from the affiliates as well as down.
- Not confirmed: we flagged Monero exit ramps; stablecoins dominate illicit volume.
- Open: the “Captagon-Gold” nexus, re-checked in December.
- Baseline: al-Shabaab’s $150 million annual revenue, verified.
GCTA Foresight Audit, Part 2: The Indian Subcontinent
Scores three forecasts on the TTP, the BLA and the Pakistan-Afghanistan war, and checks nine baseline facts.
- Confirmed: the TTP’s Afghan sanctuary would survive conventional retaliation. A year of open war has not closed it.
- Partially confirmed: the 2021 “structural upgrade” (the weapons are documented; the bases are not) and TTP-BLA convergence (direction documented; specific claims not).
- Baseline: three facts verified, three revised (the TTP’s provinces, the trigger of the February war, the Wana attack) and three unverified, including Pakistan’s “Project Sentinel.”
Our China-Iran War Calls, Scored Honestly
Scores ten calls from three 2026 pieces on China’s role in the Iran war.
- Confirmed: Chinese firms as Iran’s dual-use procurement hub; Chinese satellite data reaching Iranian targeting; Beijing as “stable” mediator while shielding Iran; the move from quiet evasion to open defiance of US sanctions.
- Partially confirmed: continued propellant-precursor shipments to scale Iran’s missile production.
- Not confirmed: a Chinese “rare-earth veto” over the US bombing campaign.
- Open: the CM-302 anti-ship missile, Iran’s move from GPS to BeiDou, YLC-8B coastal radars and the long-range production calls.
The Sahel Collapse Series: Mali, on the Record
In the first days after JNIM’s April 25 offensive, the Sahel Collapse series reported Bamako as already seized and projected the state’s collapse within 45 days. Neither happened.
- Not confirmed (ARC-01): the 45-day collapse, with Bamako already seized. The junta has held the capital throughout. The related claims about the central bank’s Bamako branch are withdrawn.
- Confirmed (ARC-02): JNIM chose a siege of Bamako over an assault, and Kidal fell to the Azawad Liberation Front.
Read the correction and update
Calls on the Watch List
These calls are registered with due dates. They are not counted until they are scored.
| Entry | Calls | Due | Where it was set |
|---|---|---|---|
| France and Belgium protests | 7 indicators for October 17 | Scored by October 31, 2026 | France and Belgium Before October 17 |
| Iran war | 6 dated entries, including whether the US pledge of no strikes on Iran before November 3 holds | October 20 to November 21, 2026 | Iran War Status Brief: October 2026 |
| The Makkah Pact | Part 1’s 30-day indicators | Early November 2026 | The First Test, Tested |
| Governor’s Rule in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa | 8 indicators at the end of the two-month window | Around December 11, 2026 | Governor’s Rule in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa |
| Sudan’s proxy war | 7 indicators, including the arms embargo and Saudi Arabia’s place in the Quad | December 11, 2026 (Security Council sanctions renewal) | Sudan’s Proxy War |
| The Gulf split | 7 indicators, including a leaders’ meeting and UAE attendance at the GCC summit | December 2026 (GCC annual summit) | The Gulf Split |
| GCTA open items | The “Captagon-Gold” nexus and the unverified baseline facts | December 2026 review | GCTA Foresight Audit |
| China-Iran open calls | 4 calls | Next quarterly review | China-Iran audit |
| Venezuela’s passports | 7 indicators, including El Aissami’s transfer to US custody and any document review | March 31, 2027 | Venezuela’s Passport Pipeline |
| The Muslim Brotherhood in Europe | 7 indicators, including an EU listing and France’s entryism bills | June 30, 2027 | The Muslim Brotherhood in Europe |
Interim reads. The Makkah Pact Part 2 gave an early read of Part 1’s 30-day indicators four days after publication, and the October Iran War Status Brief logged two of them as confirmed. Interim reads are shown in those posts; the calls enter the totals only when the full window is scored.
Earlier Reviews, Not Yet Counted
Before this method was set, CommandEleven Intelligence published several reviews of its own earlier calls. They record calls that held, but they do not quote the dated original in full or record misses alongside. They stay online and are listed here, but they are not counted in the totals until each call is re-audited against its original source under the rules above, with whatever score it earns.
- Foresight Audit: The Fujairah Maritime Interdiction (2019), May 14, 2026
- Foresight Audit: The Post-2021 TTP Border Ingress, May 14, 2026
- From Commentary to Capability, May 20, 2026 (five-entry ledger)
- Fighting 2026 Terrorism Using The 2000 Playbook, September 18, 2026. Its central call, the hawala-crypto bridge, is now scored as GCTA-FIN-03 in Part 1 of the GCTA audit.
Coming to the Record
- The rest of the GCTA. The Sahel, East Africa, the Middle East and Levant, North Africa, Europe and North America, Latin America, ISKP governance, and Cyber-Kinetic Convergence, then a closing synthesis. The full roadmap is in the GCTA Foresight Audit introduction.
- The archive track. Earlier CommandEleven Intelligence reports scored against what followed, starting with the November 2023 report on regional insecurity from Afghan soil.
How Often Is the Record Reviewed?
The totals change whenever a new audit publishes. Every open call is re-checked each quarter, and the next full review is in December 2026. Scores can move in either direction. Every change is dated in the audit it belongs to, and earlier scores are never silently overwritten.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the CommandEleven Intelligence Foresight Record?
A public scorecard of the calls CommandEleven Intelligence has formally audited against later evidence, with hits, partial hits, misses and open calls counted together.
How accurate has CommandEleven Intelligence been?
Of 20 calls scored so far, eight are confirmed, four partially confirmed, three not confirmed and five not yet resolved.
Why publish the misses?
Because a forecasting record that shows only hits cannot be checked. Every miss on this page is explained in the audit it comes from, along with what it changed in our analysis.
Are open calls counted as hits?
No. A call counts only once it is scored. Open calls are listed with their due dates and are not promoted as likely wins.
Does a confirmed call mean officials relied on CommandEleven Intelligence?
No. The record shows independent confirmation only. It never claims influence without a documented citation.
