Foresight Audit: “Regional Insecurity from Afghan Soil,” Three Years On
Our November 2023 briefing paper on Afghanistan, scored three years on: six calls confirmed, three not confirmed and one still open.
October 19, 2026
Our November 2023 briefing paper on Afghanistan, scored three years on: six calls confirmed, three not confirmed and one still open.
Pakistan suspended trade with Iran at Taftan and Gabd-Rimdan, and a rumour of US warships followed. We separate the measure from the noise and score what our Makkah Pact dossier said about this lever.
550,000 marched, 1,800 were arrested and Limoges City Hall burned. We score our October 14 indicators and our on-air calls against what happened, misses included.
Bessent promised Iran’s airlines grounded, its oil gone and Tehran at the table. Eight weeks on, we score each promise, and our own August calls, against the record.
Our April 2026 GCTA was right that the TTP’s Afghan sanctuary would survive Pakistan’s war. It got the provinces, the trigger and Wana wrong.
We scored our April 2026 terrorist-financing forecasts against UN and FATF evidence: two confirmed, one partial, one miss, one open.
We score every forecast in our April 2026 Global Counter-Terrorism Assessment against what happened, misses included. Method, scorecard and roadmap.
Every CommandEleven Intelligence call we have scored against the record: 44 so far, with 19 confirmed, 7 partial, 9 misses and 9 still open.
Six months after JNIM’s April offensive, Mali’s junta holds Bamako but has lost the north. Our update, with an on-the-record correction to our May reporting.
US strikes on Iran are paused until the midterms, but Hormuz attacks hit a record, the Houthis hit Saudi airports and Iran rebuilds. October’s status brief.
We scored 10 CommandEleven Intelligence calls on China’s role in the Iran war: 4 confirmed, 1 partial, 4 open, 1 not borne out, plus what we missed and corrected.
Foresight audit: FATF’s 2026 ‘digital hawala’ report and 9/11-anniversary official remarks echo the April GCTA’s case that the 2000 CT playbook is spent.
CommandEleven’s series on China’s cyber campaign against global infrastructure, from Salt Typhoon’s router implants to the August 2026 US grid emergency.
From rumor to record – the Caspian Sea reveal, confirmed troop and munitions numbers, and the architecture tying four adversaries together.
How Chinese infrastructure intrusion and satellite-navigation transfer to Iran converge , from Salt Typhoon to the August 2026 US grid-security order.
How adversaries exploit subsea fiber, LEO satellite networks and 5G gateways to isolate populations inside a national narrative.
SCADA networks in conflict zones are prime targets: IT/OT convergence, unauthenticated Modbus and DNP3, and cyber strikes timed ahead of kinetic attacks.
Foresight audit: how the 2021 US exit opened the Anvil Gap, gave the TTP Afghan sanctuary and NATO optics, and made Operation Ghazb lil Haq necessary.
A clinical audit of maritime gray-zone interdiction. Analyzing CommandEleven’s foresight regarding the Fujairah attacks