We score 20 claims from our July 2026 Iran doctrinal series against the evidence: 4 confirmed, 8 partly, 2 missed, 6 unresolved. The misses are published.
The Pentagon wants major bases able to run 90 days without the civilian grid. Britain wants households ready for three. What FORTRESS and “Be Ready” actually require, what officials say, and the threat picture MI5 set out behind both.
Four soldiers dead and 19 critical after a live-fire exercise at CFB Wainwright. What is confirmed, what the viral posts get right and wrong, and the question that matters.
How an October 2025 strike on the TTP’s leader became Operation Ghazab lil-Haq, a three-week air war, and a rivalry that reheated in September.
Saudi Arabia’s air force is first-rate; its army has never carried a hard ground war. That gap explains Yemen, the airport strikes and why Riyadh needed Pakistan.
Pentagon’s Project Meridian bets on new tech; Fort Irwin and Ukraine’s drone win over a US brigade show the real gap is method, not hardware.
US strikes on Iran are paused until the midterms, but Hormuz attacks hit a record, the Houthis hit Saudi airports and Iran rebuilds. October’s status brief.
Iran War Doctrine series intro: six parts testing Iran’s asymmetric doctrine against 2026 war evidence, from GPS spoofing and AI propaganda to exhaustion.
Part VI: Bahrain naval base disabled, over a dozen radars hit and a failed regime-change bet: six months of evidence testing Iran’s doctrine of endurance.
Part II: six months into the 2026 Iran war, with air superiority and Khamenei dead, no ground invasion. Why not, and what a limited ground raid could be.
