Seven dated calls came due on November 2: five right, one partly right, one miss. France’s turnout fell as we called, the October 24 arson we expected did not happen, and Germany turned violent. What we got right, what we missed, and how we scored it.
The unrest has spread beyond France: Barcelona looting, a terrorism-linked arrest in Italy, clashes in Tirana, and 21 German cities called for October 31, the same day as Acte III. What spread, what didn’t, and what to watch.
France’s protest movement has new dates, curfews and a viral claim of a 101-group network. What is planned, what the network evidence shows, and what it means for our October 31 scoring.
Engagement-optimized algorithms do extremists’ repetition work for free, and gaming platforms became a recruitment floor for minors.
550,000 marched, 1,800 were arrested and Limoges City Hall burned. We score our October 14 indicators and our on-air calls against what happened, misses included.
France’s lycee protests have turned into organized political violence spreading to Belgium. What to watch on October 17, scored as a Foresight entry.
CommandEleven’s five-part series on the US domestic threat: right-wing accelerationism and 764, left-wing extremism, Islamist lone actors and Europe.
Part 5 of the US Domestic Threat Landscape: right-wing, left-wing and Islamist extremists share online radicalization pathways and low-barrier financing.
Part 4 tests whether Europe’s 2025-26 attacks on Jewish sites by Hamas, Hezbollah and accelerationists foreshadowed the Michigan synagogue attack.
Part 3: ISIS-inspired attacks returned to the US with New Orleans in 2025, mostly by under-20 plotters radicalized online, distinct from the Brotherhood.
