We scored 41 forecasts from our April 2026 assessment: 8 confirmed, 18 partly confirmed, 4 not confirmed and 11 open. The direction was right more often than the detail. The headline statistics match the Global Terrorism Index, but three claims in the policy chapter do not survive the public record.
Most of our cyber-kinetic chapter describes events that had already happened, and most of those hold up: the AWS data center strikes, the Jerusalem camera hacks and record GPS jamming. We scored two forward-looking calls, both partly confirmed, 1 of 2. The actors we named for the industrial-control threat are not the ones the record shows.
We scored four judgments from our April 2026 assessment on Islamic State Khorasan Province: three partly confirmed and one open, 1.5 of 3. ISKP is a propaganda innovator with external intent, but the UN describes a group rebuilding after setbacks, and we found no coordinated Western campaign and no proof of the funding flows we described.
We scored three judgments from our April 2026 assessment on Southeast Asia, the Sulu Sea and North Africa: one partly confirmed and two open, 0.5 of 1. Online youth radicalization is real, but we found no urban attack, no ISKP link and no maritime drone incident. Five specific claims have no public support.
Intelligence assessment of the Jakarta-Washington pact, maritime chokepoints, and the resurgence of regional terror groups in the “Surveillance Void.”
Tactical assessment of the U.S.-Indonesia Major Defense Cooperation Partnership. Analyzing the “Southern Gateway” counter-blockade against shadow-fleet operations.
