Diesel Before Victory: Washington Leans on Kyiv’s Refinery Campaign – Annex

The US is pressing Kyiv to stop striking Russian refineries, reportedly threatening PURL and intelligence, while trading sanctions relief for Russian diesel.

The Ukraine-Russia War: A Five-Part CommandEleven Intelligence Series

Ukraine-Russia series intro: airspace insurance warfare, NATO’s Article 4 gap, sanctions, a drone-rewritten battlefield and endgame scenarios in 2026.

Escalation Risk and Endgame Scenarios: Four Clocks, No Resolution – Part 5

Part V: Putin’s maximalist terms, Russia’s public-opinion gap and nuclear risk assessed as low: what four clocks say about where the Ukraine war is going.

Battlefield Realities: The War Drones Rewrote – Part 4

Part IV: Russia’s monthly gains fell from 725 sq km in Nov 2025 to a net loss by April 2026, as drone kill zones rewrote the Ukraine war’s tactics.

Sanctions and Economic Warfare: The Slow Squeeze – Part 3

Part III: 21 EU sanctions packages, a shadow fleet 90% less active where jointly sanctioned, a price cap caught by Hormuz, and a thinner US role on Russia.

NATO’s Response: The Mobilization and the Gap – Part 2

Part 2: Europe summoned Russia’s envoys after Leipzig, yet no NATO member has sought Article 4 talks since Sept 2025, the key test of alliance cohesion.

Russian Airspace at War: Ukraine’s Aviation Warning, Explained – Part 1

Part 1: Zelensky’s Sept 2026 warning on Russian airspace, the deep-strike campaign behind it, and the war-risk insurance lever demonstrated at Hormuz.