Things were difficult for the Pakistan Army to begin with, to say the least, but with the wave that is sweeping across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa now, things have gotten tremendously more difficult.
To be honest, for the people who were planning to cause unrest in Pakistan, they couldn’t have imagined things getting this bad, this quickly.
Let’s start from the terror attack on Bannu Cantt.
For anyone to claim that attacks on military installations was not possible, since the announcement of the start of the Azm-e-Istehkaam, they would have to shut their eyes to the reality of the on-ground position.
Simultaneous to the announcement of the operation, both the TTP, Hafiz Gul Bahadar group, and other affiliated groups announced they would increase their targeting of Pakistan’s security forces.
If you look at the past 6 months, Pakistan’s military, paramilitary and law enforcement has been under severe attack. There have been few days where there has not been an attack on a camp in FATA, a police officer being shot, or a plethora of other examples that the TTP, and their affiliated groups, had stepped up their war against the State.
This is guerrilla warfare – when you attack the State assets and not the civilians – and it’s been going on since pre-Taliban takeover in Afghanistan. Granted, at that time, there were other players that were encouraging and supporting the attacks, which we have highlighted numerous times in our posts, articles and tweets.
Bannu Cantt was the first major attack since the start of the operation.
Protests Before Bannu Protest
With the current mood of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, its government and people, it should have been expected that there would be a protest march after the attack on the cantt area.
For those who don’t know, there have been numerous protests throughout KPK, since the TTP raised their ugly head again. We are talking about a few years back. Those protests have all followed one model – either keep terrorism out of our area or take your military and police out of the area and we will defend ourselves.
This is a very dangerous position for the public to take. While most Pashtuns are very well-armed, they are not as armed as the terrorists that have infiltrated these areas again, and the result will be much worse.
We are going to take you back to the last time when the TTP occupied Swat. The TTP, by force, disarmed the people, either by taking the weapons from them or the people willingly surrendered their weapons. Many people, during the night, went and buried their weapons, rather than handing them over to the terrorists.
Since the TTP was forced to flee from Swat, many people have again bought weapons and have prepared themselves for any possibilities, but they do not have the deadly weapons that the TTP has, due to the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. We can blame the Taliban & the Haqqani Network for this. We can also blame ISKP for importing bomb making experts from Syria and Iraq to teach the TTP how to make more deadly bombs, including VBIEDs, that if turned on the people of Pakistan will cause casualties in the hundreds.
The easiest way we can explain the new skill set – the TTP has now prepared car bombs that have nails, screws and ball-bearings mixed into the explosive materials, much like we saw from ISIL in Iraq.
Consider that, as you discuss the new operation.
The Bannu Protest
It was expected that there would be a public reaction to the attack in Bannu Cantt. It was also expected that there would be miscreants mixed into the crowd with weapons, whose singular objective was to draw some action from the law enforcement and security forces.
When you know both of these realities exist, it made no sense for the law enforcement and security forces to fire on the protesters. Sadly, sense is what is lacking right now in Pakistan’s security policy.
Right now, any reaction will draw a more negative response from the people whose support is required to win the war against terrorism.
What happened in Bannu was not only wrong, it was suicidal for Azm-e-Istehkaam. The people will now firmly be against ANY military presence in their areas, because it will make them a target of the TTP and their affiliated groups.
Onwards and Other Parties Involved
With Manzoor Pashteen and his PTM again emerging with the same hostile narrative, the intention is clear to create more division between the people and the Pakistan Army. We have even seen the announcement on @X of the beginnings of the National Assembly of Pashtunistan, which emerged after the rally where Manzoor again targeted the Pakistan Army.
Similiarly, we know that ISKP has pulled Khyber Pakhtunkhwa from the ISPP branch and is overseeing it themselves. This should be very concerning for anyone who wants a future for Pakistan. We also know the Taliban & Haqqani Network would like nothing more than to pay Pakistan back for its support of US forces against them during the War on Terror. With both of these, you can believe that al-Qaeda (AQ) is waiting in the wings to step into the battle themselves, if they are already not involved.
Their first step is taking control of FATA and the Malakand Division, which would create both a buffer zone where the terrorists would have operational control to attack other areas of KPK and Pakistan.
What Is Coming Next…
For those who don’t understand, this is FATA, Malakand and the KPK border with Baluchistan and Punjab. They are already preparing to move into Baluchistan when the time is right.
It’s well-known, and we reported this a few months back as well, that the local residents of FATA are providing shelter and food to TTP fighters. They are being housed in masjids, hujras, and in people’s homes. There is a firm belief among some of these people, who are supporting them, that they are the best option for Pakistan, others are staying quiet because of fear of repercussions, which we have seen already. Those who were suspected of supporting the Pak Army or the operation, have been executed and the videos have been shared on social media and the TTP propaganda groups.
The fear has been implanted in the people, and they will not assist the Pakistan Army in the Azm-e-Istehkaam operation for fear of their lives.
Second, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa parliamentary members have tabled a motion demanding they be given a full briefing on the operation. Until that happens, we can assume, the PTI government of KPK will not support the operation.
Third, the people of the province are not only against the operation, but openly telling the military to wrap up their garrisons in their areas and they will stand against the terrorists themselves.
Yesterday, Noor Wali Mehsud, Emir of the TTP, released an audio recording basically inviting the people to stand with the TTP for their own protection. This is the same narrative the Fazlullah (Mullah Radio) used when he brought the TNSM into Swat. It was the basis of how he was able to disarm so many Pashtuns. We are seeing a repeat of history here.
Also, many have noticed that the TTP has not launched any attacks on the civilian population. This is part of their 2012-13 manifesto revision – if they attack civilians, the people will turn against them and will not support their onward mission.
Does that mean the TTP will not attack civilians at all? No.
Civilian attacks will be restrained until they need to bring pressure on the government. In other words, they won’t attack civilians purposely unless they feel they are losing the war against the military, which at this point seems difficult.
Support From Afghanistan
We know the Taliban will not take any action against the TTP. As a matter of fact, they are building new residences and training camps for them in Ghazni province, alongside al-Qaeda (AQ) and other terrorist groups.
We know the Haqqani Network (HQN) is working closely with the TTP in planning, arming and targeting. We have repeatedly stated that Sirajuddin Haqqani is playing am intricate game, but very few have understood the game that is ongoing.
One day, we will go into detail on Sirajuddin’s game with the terror groups in Afghanistan, as well as foreign intelligence and foreign governments.
ISKP, whether supporting the TTP or not, is achieving their goals through the TTP. ISKP wants KPK and Baluchistan split from Pakistan, TTP is helping them do exactly that.
The key areas of Operation Azm-e-Istehkaam are Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan, where the people are suspicious of not only the operation, but whether these terrorists are terrorists or not.
Yes, that discussion is also ongoing in some places.
Simultaneously, many believe the operation could be cover to target political and social opponents of the current government, as we’ve seen since before the last election.
People who are expecting us, or anyone else, to propose how Pakistan can emerge successfully from this are not understanding the sheer depth of the problem.
We will be discussing this more in the future, as well as in a series of podcasts and X Spaces that we are working on.
In the end, the solution to the problem looks very distant when looking at the wealth of players and problems that have been created.
