On the other side of the world, US President Joe Biden, while announcing a partnership with Kenya to fight ISIS, said:

“There’s a reason why Afghanistan has been known as the graveyard of empires. The likelihood of anybody uniting Afghanistan is highly, highly, highly unlikely. Number one. Number two, there are other ways to control ISIS other than occupying Afghanistan.”

While many will disagree with us, we have spent months discussing the situation in Afghanistan, and these statements don’t track with the on-ground reality. We’ve also clearly said that the force that would replace the Taliban in Afghanistan will be more brutal than any terror group the world has seen thus far. 

Realistically, the chances of the Taliban government surviving the summer are very limited, understanding the facts below.

FACT: 

ISKP has only grown in strength over the past 3 years, while the Taliban have ruled Afghanistan. Not only are they able to easily move fighters between Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, but their presence in terms of training camps and external operations has significantly increased. Also, the number of external operations they have successfully carried out has raised their confidence level, which is evident in their propaganda, where they have threatened attacks on the European Cup in Germany, the Summer Olympics in France, and the ICC World Cup in the United States. Additionally, just a cursory review of the headlines from around Europe echoes the growth, whether the core ISIS or its Afghanistan branch, where the mainstream media has reported arrests of cells and individuals, in Norway, Germany, England and numerous other countries, with IS propaganda materials on their computers/mobile phones and planning attacks within their own countries. 

ISKP propaganda regularly targets the Taliban and their relations with Iran, China, India and the United States, increasing pressure and creating more opportunities to recruit from the disenfranchised Taliban commanders and fighters into their fold. 

ISKP has been extremely successful in recruiting the minority ethnic (non-Pashtun) groups into their fold, causing more concern for the Central Asian Republics. They have also been been able to leverage the Taliban’s attempts to re-settle Pashtuns into Tajik, Uzbek and now Panjshiri dominated areas. This has led to a spike in anti-Taliban sentiments in Badakhshan, Takhar, and Faryab provinces, further weakening the Taliban’s hold on the country.

FACT

The Taliban’s fight against ISKP has been a losing battle, evidenced by their own statements. Haibatullah Akhundzada, the Supreme Leader of the Taliban, has on three occasions this year alone called for the “purification” of the Afghanistan military, police, intelligence and government of infiltrators, while the number of ISKP attacks in Afghanistan continues to increase, especially in areas where the Taliban once had control. We are talking about the attack last week on the Taliban bus in Kandahar, the long-time Taliban stronghold, killing 20 of their fighters. 

In his May 17th speech to the Governors of the 34 provinces of Afghanistan, Haibatullah Akundzada specifically focused on unity and obedience. 

FACT

The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have openly shown their displeasure with the Taliban command. On 2 occasions this year, in meetings with the Prime Minister and Deputy Defense Minister, Noor Wali Mehsud, the emir of the TTP, openly threatened if the Taliban continued to pressure the TTP to cease cross-border attacks on Pakistan, they would join ISKP. This threat comes with the understanding that many of al-Qaeda (AQ) and Taliban commanders support the TTP in their attacks on Pakistan, believing it should be punished for standing with the Americans against them in the War on Terror. The threat also implanted the fear that many of those who support the position would join ISKP along with the TTP, when the time came. 

FACT

While both China and Pakistan have stepped up pressure on the Taliban government to control the cross-border attacks, the Taliban has failed to do so. Recent attempts to infiltrate Pakistan by the TTP have been supported by cover fire from Taliban fighters to engage the Pakistani security forces to facilitate them.

FACT

The Taliban itself is dealing with a significant internal rift between the Kandahar and Haqqani Network factions, forcing other factions to take sides, making a coordinated attack against ISKP impossible. 

External Support

With these facts, Alexander Bortnikov’s statement that the Taliban can stabilise Afghanistan is difficult to support. Over the past 3 years, the Taliban has been solely and wholly responsible for Afghanistan’s security and governance, which has resulted in the facts shared above. Without external support, the Taliban itself understands it is unable to win this fight.

On June 23, 2023, we pointed out that the Taliban had invited US contractors to join them in the fight against ISKP. In March 2024, the Brooking Institute confirmed the Taliban had given US drones fly-over rights to surveil IS commanders and camps, but they were not given the right to fire upon them. After the Crocus City Hall attack in Russia, Russia announced an alliance with India and the Taliban to fight ISKP in Afghanistan. Pakistan has repeatedly offered its assistance to the Taliban to stem the cross-border attacks and neutralise the threat from ISKP and TTP from Afghan soil.

Economically, China has given the Taliban significant support through contracts to extract gems and minerals. Iran has provided Chabahar Port to give Afghanistan access to goods and materials, while inviting US$ 65 million in investment from Afghan businessmen into plazas, hotels and other commercial opportunities. 

It has become extremely obvious that without boots on the ground, the Taliban cannot stabilise Afghanistan. 

And this is where the problem arises again….

Russia cannot commit its own forces to a fight against IS in Afghanistan because of its engagement with the Ukraine, and potentially NATO. 

For China and Pakistan, Afghanistan is a hornet’s nest. With ETIM and TTP heavily entrenched in Afghanistan, both nations are limited to air strikes and targeted wet-work teams. Pakistan has already engaged TTP camps inside Afghanistan with drone and airstrikes in the past few months, raising tensions with the Taliban government.

The Central Asian Republics militaries are not strong enough for a ground invasion into Afghanistan, nor do they have the battlefield intelligence capabilities of the 3 previously mentioned nations.

The US is already on ground and flying drone surveillance missions on ISKP. The Taliban may need to consider upping the ante and giving them strike authority. However, the Taliban itself seems to be concerned about the US drones, when in early April, Haibatullah Akhundzada fled his office and went into hiding when a US drone was spotted in the vicinity. 

With this chessboard, how does one think the fight can be won?