In November 2023, CommandEleven wrote a detailed analysis paper on the emerging threat from Afghanistan. In that analysis, we interpreted the ground intelligence that we received that the Taliban government was in trouble and would see a significant challenge from ISKP within months.

In February 2024, CommandEleven Executive Director, Syed Khalid Muhammad recorded a podcast, where he predicted that the Taliban government would fall to ISKP in June 2024. The podcast is available on our website.

As the Holy Month of Ramadan was coming to an end (March 2024) and the Taliban was preparing for Eid-ul-Fitr prayers, ISKP openly issued a threat to Mullah Haibatullah, causing the Taliban to take extreme measures to secure the masjid (mosque) where the Taliban’s Supreme Leader would lead prayers on Eid day. Those extreme measures included the erection of blast-proof walls to protect him from a potential attack.

It was during those Eid prayers in various locations in Afghanistan, where Sirajuddin Haqqani, current Interior Minister and leader of the notorious Haqqani Network, spoke out against the Supreme Leader and his policies of ethno-fascism, saying it would no longer be tolerated. Mullah Yaqoob, currently Defense Minister and the son of Mullah Muhammad Omar, founder of the Taliban, also spoke out telling his followers, they “should not blindly follow the orders of anyone.”

In response to the public statements, Mullah Haibatullah ceded powers from his Interior Minister, Defense Minister and Head of the General Directorate of Intelligence (GDI) to their deputies, who he believes are loyal to him.

The Taliban, an umbrella organization of numerous groups and factions, began to see rifts in their own structure. In March and May 2024, when the Prime Minister and Deputy Defense Ministers of Afghanistan attempted to convince Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Emir Noor Wali Mehsud (NWM) to stop cross-border attacks against Pakistan, NWM openly threatened if the Taliban continued to argue Pakistan’s position, they would change their allegiance to ISKP. NWM presented this threat knowing that many of the commanders and rank-and-file fighter stood with the TTP and believed that Pakistan needed to be punished for their role in collaborating with the US against the Taliban. They would defect with the TTP when they joined ISKP.

In April 2024, Mullah Haibatullah issued decrees that law enforcement, military and government must be “purified” of all ISKP elements, while going underground, into hiding himself. In May 2024, the Afghanistan Freedom Front carried out a brazen attack on Mullah Haibatullah’s security entourage while he was in Kabul for meetings with his government officials. While ISKP increased their attacks around Afghanistan demonstrating the weakness of the Taliban to defend their own people.

During these same four months, CommandEleven has written numerous threads on the spread of ISKP in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s tribal (FATA) and settled areas. We have reported that Sanaullah Ghafari, the Emir of ISKP and a former Haqqani Network senior operative, has removed Khyber Pakhtunkhwa from the Islamic State – Pakistan Province’s (ISPP) control and taken it under ISKP itself. An obvious indication that matters have significantly deteriorated in Afghanistan.

Today, Hasht-e-Subh Daily published an article, stating that Mullah Haibatullah has lost control of Kandahar, his safe haven and the home base of the Taliban, to ISKP.

For those who believe the Taliban will be able to continue to control Afghanistan in the near future, need to wake up. Afghanistan is about to fall to the most vicious terror group we have seen.

What Mullah Haibatullah doesn’t understand is that his most senior commanders and allies have already aligned with ISKP. The terror groups that he has harbored on Afghan soil have already aligned with ISKP. He only has segments of his Kandahari faction to stand with him.

ISKP’s propaganda machinery has radicalized individuals across the globe, even a 14-year old girl in Austria, who was arrested today for having an axe and ISKP materials on her computer, planning a terrorist attack on Jakominiplatz in the Austrian city of Graz.

Read that again – a 14 year old girl.

The Taliban’s own head of intelligence in Badakhshah province was arrested today for his links with ISKP.

There are 3 countries to blame for this debacle – the United States, India, and Iran – who, for their own objectives, allowed, even facilitated, Afghanistan becoming a terrorist haven and a global threat over the past 2 years.

The United States even funded it with taxpayer dollars.

Global terrorism is about to explode with the European Cup, Summer Olympics, and ICC T20 Cricket World Cup on the horizon, as Afghanistan slips into a very quick and very bloody militant civil war.