Executive Summary
After the completion of nuclear program utilizing strategy of sheltered pursuit, Pakistan successfully demonstrated its nuclear delivering capability by testing & deploying Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM) and raising dedicated Squadrons for strategic strike back in late 90s. It enabled Pakistan to strike counter force assets of Indian armed forces with nuclear payload. This served as deadly blow to Indian XYZ strategy which was focused on accumulation of huge chunk of armored force close to border for giving decisive challenge to Pakistan by out numbering & out gunning its defensive measure.
Deployment of Strategic WMDs by Pakistan nullified this tactic as such large force concentration is appealing target for any strategic weapon. To re shift the balance in their favor, the Indian strategists came up with a new solution which was named as Cold Start Doctrine (CSD). Though officially this doctrine existence is not acknowledged but there are enough indications which points out that this strategy is not a random myth but a well-organized & well executed pro-active war strategy. Cold Start Doctrine is based upon concept of small and rapid strikes on soft targets with in Pakistan territory without overcoming the Nuclear Threshold limit. This strategy enjoys benefit due to natural lack of strategic depth on Pakistan side, particularly, on Southern Punjab & Northern Sindh sectors. With Mountain regions of Suleiman on Western side, desert on Eastern side, this region serves as soft belly of Pakistan that can literally split Pakistan into two halves if it fell in hands hostile invading force. This region joins Pakistan via water channel of Indus River, road & railway network thus playing a key strategic role in terms of land & sea-based connectivity.
Its worthy to point out that Cold Start is strictly based upon mechanized invasion force.
For rapid movements, it’s crucial that invading forces must not face any credible resistance from defending forces plus the terrain should decisively support the mission & objective.
Kashmir being a mountainous region serves as natural protection layer in between both states making movement of large forces under the dynamics of CSD impossible. Boggy Plains of North & Central Punjab might appear an appealing location but it is heavily defended by Pakistan army corps which thanks to robust network of railway & roads can rapidly move & deploy in very short interval of time. This capability was successfully demonstrated during 2002 Military Stand-off when Pakistan gave soft tactical defeat to Indian armed forces even before ignition of any conflict. Presence of river-canal systems, urban areas make Punjab good in ambush defensive tactics particularly against tanks in the form of ATGM fortifications. These factors application of CSD in Punjab region way risky in terms of losses related to time, life & equipment. South & Lower Sindh is covered with vast Marshy lands through which movement of heavy armor is not a possibility. This leaves only Desert terrains shared by Pakistan & India in the form of Great Thar desert (Punjab & Rajasthan). In deserts, terrain is neither well defined nor permanent, sand movement keep on shifting space so mass fortification is not possible. Vastness of desert offers flexibility in battle field tactics including flanking movements hence making it attractive target for any armored invasion. Though Pakistan have deployed its armored & mechanized armored groups close by but still it does not address the core issues by posing questions related to their rapid mobility & target acquisition in case of CSD inspired invasion.
India kept cold start doctrine in darkness, known to only close circles and started to prepare accordingly by pouring huge amount of funds. This included the purchase of relevant military hardware, establishment of robust C4ISR assets (Command for Intelligence Surveillance, Reconnaissance), improved training standards and adhering of CSD linked tactics in Corps deployed in Rajasthan. Currently India’s South Western Command (Corp I & X) and Southern Command (Corps XII & XXI) are affiliated directly or directly with CSD. Pakistan first tried to neutralize this threat by exploiting it at diplomatic level to address the threats to peace and ignition of arms race in long terms but Indian denial on existence of such doctrine & counter diplomacy rendered such attempts useless. This was the time Pakistan came up with unique solution to this unique problem.
Due to Economic constraints and limited sources to buy military armaments, Pakistan was very short of options. By closely observing the past NATO doctrine in European theater against Soviet ground invasion as well as domestic technological domain, Pakistan re-introduced Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNW) in battle grounds as a counter tool verses CSD. NASR was specifically developed as Indian Cold Start Killer. NASR is primarily a Quasi Ballistic Missile which is carried by Multi Tube TEL vehicle (Tactical Erector Launcher). It can carry four missiles each armed with sub kilo ton miniaturized nuclear warheads. Missile as per official claims have max range of 60km, utilizes Inertial Navigation System & Global Positioning System (INS/GPS), powered by Solid Fueled Propulsion with thrust vectoring (TV) nozzles. The Development & deployment (D&D) of NASR Battle Field Nuclear Missile system gave birth to Pakistan’s own Full Spectrum Deterrence Doctrine (FSD) which relied on concept that any major armored invasion on Pakistani soil can be countered by NASR as unlike any armored force which is prone to air strikes and face certain time limitations related to strategic mobility , NASR battery is much easier to keep in stealth, can be moved more rapidly, have shoot and scoot capability which increase its survivability as well as carry enough destructive power to halt any ground invasion dead on its tracks.
This move of TNW was met with hue and cry at international level. For India, it was matter of serious concern as TNW put its billions of dollars’ expenditure at stake. India took it as ‘’Pakistan can now do whatever it wants without worrying about any serious threat on Eastern border’’. Pakistan played its shot very well in geo strategic grounds, now ball was in Indian court and it did play the return shot.