Disclaimer

This is a collaborative threat assessment, with all sources and contributors listed at the end. This is not a vetted report from the National Vetting Center (NVC). There is no classified information contained in this document.

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF):

al Qaeda’s homeland plot is planned for 2025, directed by Hamza bin-Laden and masterminded by Sayf al-Adel. Attackers are already in the United States having taken advantage of lax immigration policies of the previous administration, though their exact number remains unknown. In addition to preparing for attacks, they are actively recruiting, focusing on refugees and insider threats.

Details:

Counterterrorism operations all but ceased under the previous administration resulting in a degradation of the United States collection posture, and an accurate picture of the threat environment. While I have no doubt the new administration is addressing these issues, the threat is intent on capitalizing on the administration’s turnover, and immediate focus on mass deportations.

Media reporting in the mid 2024 reported that Hamza bin-Laden is alive, and currently running al Qaeda, which has quietly been rebuilding their organization and network in Taliban controlled Afghanistan for several years following the previous administrations botched withdraw of Afghanistan in August 2021. They have networked with other radical Islamic terrorist organizations including ISIS/ISIS-K, HAMAS/Hezbollah, and the Taliban to share resources, training, and operational capabilities.

al Qaeda used the October 7th, 2023, HAMAS attack on Israel as a test run for a similar attack in the United States. Like this attack, the plot for the United States is to create chaos and panic, and to sow distrust in the administration/government to handle the threat and defend the Homeland. However, the planned attacks on the Homeland include coordinated mass shootings, assassinations, vehicle ramming, and suicide bombings targeting communities, modes of transportation, power grids, government/military installations, schools and churches. Targets include all major U.S. cities, with the intent to draw in first responders. Radical clerics are covertly recruiting within the United States, and communication networks have used sophisticated encryption platforms to avoid detection.

al Qaeda’s exploitation of lax immigration policies of the previous administration was sophisticated. Al Qaeda trained their operatives on how to exploit the US Refugee and Asylum programs to gain entry. Additionally, according to the recently released Terror Threat Snapshot from the House Committee on Homeland Security, in June of 2024, DHS identified more than 400 jihadists brought across the U.S. border by AQ/ISIS linked human smuggling networks. These networks have also worked with the cartels to facilitate their entry into the United States interior. 

Following the disastrous withdraw from Afghanistan in 2021, the NVC was asked to establish an exigent vetting program for Operation Allies Welcome (OAW, then Operation Enduring Welcome (OEW), then just Enduring Welcome (EW)). Designed to provide safe haven and passage to Afghanis that assisted the United States during our two decades in Afghanistan, the process was ripe with fraud, and countless individuals were unverifiable. Compounding the issue, many scattered unaccounted for by DHS/USCIS once flown into the United States. During the collection of information from these individuals, many of them were instructed to use U.S. information, limiting vetting abilities. Despite efforts to reenroll and reparole these individuals, many are still unaccounted for at present.

Additionally, in May 2024 the NVC was asked to establish another exigent vetting program regarding a classified threat stream where passports from six identified countries were being heavily forged for human smuggling purposes. This pathway was significantly exploited by al Qaeda to smuggle operatives into the United States. But that only accounts for those that are encountered at or between ports of entry – what remains a complete unknown are the “got-aways”. We have no idea how many, who they are, or where they are. al Qaeda specifically trained their operatives in avoiding detection while crossing the southern border, significantly aided by the cartels.

The aforementioned House Committee on Homeland Security’s Terror Threat Snapshot provides notable developments and recent key developments but fails to address worldwide trends. As I am writing this, there was a stabbing attack in Mulhouse, France. Just before that there was the attack Zurich, Switzerland. The day before another one outside the Holocaust Memorial and US Embassy in Berlin, Germany. These attacks have become an almost daily occurrence across Europe – in France and Germany most predominantly. Austria, Sweden, Norway, Belgium, England. Random attacks, targets of opportunity none of which are seemingly coordinated, but all of which centrally directed or at the very least encouraged. al Qaeda has been very deliberate in not claiming credit for any of these attacks. The media has been quick to point to ISIS. This is done by design as they do not want to draw too much attention before their main event – al Qaeda’s 2025 Homeland Plot.

Sources/Contributors:
  • Terror Threat Snapshot
  • House Committee on Homeland Security
  • Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence
  • American|Kinetix (americankx.com; @AXactual on X)
  • CommandEleven (commandeleven.com; @commandeleven on X)
  • @visegrad24 on X
  • @TPASarah on X
  • @TrackingAQ on X
  • @Apex_Actual_ on X
  • @TerroristHunte6 on X
  • @TerrorWatchAU on X
  • @SigsInfo on X
  • @zarrar_11PK on X