Back in early 2023, CommandEleven did an in-depth study into the situation in Afghanistan, which is posted on our corporate website. This was followed up with a series of monologue podcasts, where our Executive Director, Syed Khalid Muhammad, described how the situation in Afghanistan was rapidly changing and Haibatullah Akhundzada was losing control of his own government to Sirajuddin Haqqani.

 

Many disregarded what we were projecting and the sheer potential for inordinate violence that would come with Sirajuddin declaring open war on the Kandahari faction, to their own failure to understand the situation. 

 

Over 2024, we went into detail drawing the connections between the notorious Haqqani Network (HQN) and the various regional and international terror groups inside Afghanistan.

 

Today, we have to link some pieces that most aren’t talking about yet in light of Sirajuddin’s resignation as Minister of Interior.

 

1 – The Emir of the Islamic State in Iraq was killed today. This puts Iraq in play for an uprising.

 

2 – HTS and Jolani are strengthening their hold on Syria, after a very recent trip of commanders and fighters to Afghanistan. This is not a coincidence in light of Haqqani’s resignation. HTS will activate the fighters who have migrated (ETIM, ISKP, TTP, AQ, and others) from Afghanistan in the various terror groups against opposition forces in Syria. 

 

3 – ISKP carried out a suicide attack in Waziristan today, as Sirajuddin was resigning. ISKP, under Ghafari, has absorbed Khyber Pakhtunkhwa from Islamic State Pakistan Province (ISPP), which means more dedicated resources and fighters inside Pakistan.

 

4 – the resignation comes on the heels of the Jaffar Express attack by the BLA, who can deny their connections to Afghanistan but the facts weigh themselves out. The facts – BLA carried out an al Qaeda level attack against the Pakistan Army, while simultaneously demanding a major prisoner exchange, a major uptick in maturity of the BLA.

 

5 – This also comes just 10 days after the BRAS announcement of all Baluch insurgent groups joining forces against Pakistani and Chinese interests in Baluchistan.

 

6 – India & Iran cannot be counted out of the equation. Both have deep ties with Haibatullah and will be carefully considering their role in the civil war, but both will have significant roles, be assured of that. 

 

For the observer, looking at each event in isolation, it won’t make sense. When you combine them all, Haqqani’s resignation makes a great deal of sense at this time. 

 

This comes after Haqqani has made numerous trips to HQN friendly Middle Eastern nations and gathered support in exchange for funding. If you are a regular follower, you’ll recall the analysis and insights that CommandEleven provided during the first UAE and Saudi Arabia trips. We told you that there was a tit-for-tat exchange between the friendly nations and the Haqqani entourage, which included Abdul Wasiq, head of the GDI, and Mullah Yaqoob, Minister of Defense.

 

Haqqani has the support of Wasiq, Yaqoob, Gulmurod Khalimov, Haji Forqan (ETIM), Qari Fasihuddin, Amanuddin Mansoor (217 Corps, Kunduz), Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Ansarullah (Jaish ul Adel), Saif al-Adel (al Qaeda), Hamza and Abdullah bin Laden. Additionally, you must expect that Khabib Nurmagomedov (Islamic State Caucasus) will also throw his support behind Haqqani against the Kandahari faction under Haibatullah.

 

Haqqani has full control of the core interior, intelligence and military infrastructure, making victory more assured. Keep these pieces in mind going forward, because they will play a key supporting role with HQN.

 

Also, keep in mind, that IMU & ETIM control northern Afghanistan, HQN controls Western Afghanistan, along with the TTP and ISKP. That doesn’t leave the Kandahari faction much room to maneuver outside Kandahar, Helmand, and Nimroz, if Iran stands with Haibatullah instead of Haqqani, where they have closer ties via IRGC, Hezbollah and Hamas.

 

Lastly, keep in mind that HQN has deep links with European mafias, which provide an endless flow of funds via drug sales and with Yaqoob on board, all the weapons the US abandoned in Afghanistan.

 

We need to keep in mind the US will be boxed into a corner, forced to decide whether to bomb Afghanistan to neutralize the US weaponry or allow the civil war to be carried out on both sides of the Pak-Afghan border. 

 

For those who think a civil war will be protracted, think again. It will be very bloody and much more brutal with the affiliated groups attached to HQN and Sirajuddin, but it will not last more than 6 months in total.

 

We fully expect attacks inside Pakistan to massively increase via the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), who controls Khyber Pakhtunkhwa tactically, and the Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA), who will be heavily deployed and facilitated via ISKP.

 

Expect Russian counter terrorism commandos on ground, to take sides, as well as China, whose highest value mining contracts are located in Badakhshan province, home of ETIM.

 

This is the war that Pakistan’s analysts and military didn’t foresee, expect or consider possible. Jaffar Express was proof of concept for HQN the time was right to move Sirajuddin out of the Taliban regime.

 

Much of this analysis will make little sense to those who are casual observers, but for those who are focused on the region, they will understand what happens next and how.

 

Pick the wrong side and they are sitting ducks for HQN and their affiliated groups to neutralize them without remorse.

 

We welcome all of you to read our detailed analysis on our website entitled – Regional Insecurity and Terrorism from Afghanistan – and the associated podcasts that followed to gain a better understanding.