Unveiling the Origins

Private military companies (PMC) have become an new tool for states to use in warfare, when they are unable to integrate their foreign policy objectives with their geopolitical objectives. It is also known that private militaries are also used to carry out the tasks that would fall under Geneva Convention violations. The more prevalent private military businesses become, the more efficiently nations can involve them in actions that harm state interests.

In some regions, state military forces cannot perform covert operations, but private military companies can. Under US contract and permission, Blackwater performed many covert operations on demand in Iraq, Afghanistan, Bosnia, and Israel. This created a vacuum, especially for major powers to change their way to conduct operations, to outsource military missions. In international power nexus, Russia, to maintain its position, followed the trend of having a mercenary group, Wagner, like G4S and Blackwater.

The Wagner Group is a Russian private military company, founded in 2014 by Dmitry Utkin, a former Russian military officer, has been active in several conflicts around the world, including Ukraine, Syria, and Libya. Utkin is thought to have taken the nom de guerre “Wagner” after the German composer Richard Wagner, who was an inspiration for the National Socialist German Workers’ Party. The group is funded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a businessman with close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Unraveling the web of connections surrounding the Wagner Group requires careful examination of available evidence, open-source intelligence, and expert opinions. As well as speculations about its ties to Russian military intelligence agency, GRU, fuel intense debates among experts and analysts.

The Wagner Group’s mercenaries’ purported support of far-right ideas has also earned the organization notoriety. The group’s founder, Dmitry Utkin, has close links to the Night Wolves, a white supremacist, ultra-nationalist motorcycle club sanctioned by the US, UK, and EU. This infamous Russian biker gang also met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2009.

It is widely believed rumor that The Night Wolves have the implicit support from the Russian government, and photographs of Wagner Group members endorsing the Night Wolves’ style of far-right ideology on social media.

‎According to The Sentry investigation, ‎Wagner Group has been accused of committing many human rights abuses, including war crimes and crimes against humanity in their operation fields. Especially in Central African Republic, the group has been linked to the torture and execution of civilians, as well as the use of child soldiers, leading to international scrutiny and condemnation.

The Wagner Group is also known for its recklessness and ruthlessness. The alleged murder of Yevgeny Nuzhin, a convicted killer turned mercenary. Nuzhin conducted a series of interviews after surrendering to Ukraine, criticizing Russian leadership and disclosing the terrible conditions on the front lines that drove him to desert.

After being exchanged as a prisoner of war, a terrifying video of Nuzhin being executed with a sledgehammer surfaced on the Telegram messenger service. The sledgehammer is an infamous Wagner Group emblem.

The Shadowy Web of Connections

Ukraine

The Wagner Group’s first major operation was in Ukraine, where it fought alongside pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas region and annexation of Crimea. The group is believed to have played a significant role in the separatists’ victories in 2014 and 2015.

It was estimated that it had roughly 5,000 combatants before the Ukraine war, most of them veterans of Russia’s elite units and special forces. However, its popularity skyrocketed after that.

Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed to have recruited 50,000 inmates to fight alongside Wagner in Russia’s conflict in Ukraine, with approximately 20% of them has been killed since the war started in 2022. According to the Prigozhin, 20,000 troops were slain in the months-long war for control of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine.

Wagner seized possession of Bakhmut in June 2023, which had been devastated by the extended combat and handed it over to Russian military. Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated the armed forces for this.

Syria

In 2015, the Wagner Group was deployed in Syria to support the government of Bashar al-Assad, helping to turn the tide of the war in Assad’s favor. After over one hundred Syrian pro-government officials were killed in the battle of Khasham, which the media proclaimed “the first deadly clash between citizens of Russia and the United States since the Cold War.” Syria accused the US of carrying out a “brutal massacre” of its troops. Russia accused the US of economic motivation due to the close proximity of significant oil resources.

Libya

In 2019, the Wagner Group was also been active in Libya, where it has fought alongside Khalifa Haftar’s forces. The group is believed to have played a role in Haftar’s capture of the Libyan capital, Tripoli.

It was reported that the Wagner Group was conducting airstrikes in favor of Libyan National Army (LNA) leader Khalifa Haftar, with two Mig-29s piloted by PMCs crashing, one at the end of June and the second in early September.

A video of the pilot of the second jet’s rescue by an LNA combat helicopter after he parachuted and landed in the desert went viral. A helicopter delivering ammunition crashed in Sokna, near Al Jufra, near the end of September while en route to an oil field. Four PMC individuals were killed in the crash.

According to the reports of British Defense Ministry, the Wagner Group is estimated to have more than 50,000 soldiers altogether.

According to the BBC, Wagner registered as a “private military company” in 2022, even though mercenary forces are officially outlawed in Russia.

In January 2023, the US indicated it will identify the organization as a “transnational criminal organization.”

Group Finances

The Wagner Group has offered security services to scores of weak and war-torn African and Middle Eastern countries, and companies allegedly linked to Prigozhin generated $250 million from natural resources in those nations in the four years before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, an investigation from the Financial Times found.

Wagner has reportedly helped Russian-allied President Bashar al-Assad fight rebel groups and the Islamic State, and Prigozhin-connected oil companies like Evro Polis were offered a 25% cut of any earnings from oil and gas fields that the group freed from the Islamic State’s (or ISIS’) grip, the Associated Press and U.S. Treasury said in 2018.

Evro Polis generated $134 million in gross sales and $90 million in profit in 2020 alone from recapturing oilfields from ISIS during the Syrian Civil War, the Financial Times found, despite the company being sanctioned by the U.S. years earlier.

In the Central African Republic, in exchange for providing mercenaries to prop up the government and stop a coup against the country’s autocratic leader, firms linked to Wagner maintain substantial control over gold and diamond mining in the country, as well as forestry rights.

While estimates vary, revenue in the Central African Republic is sizable. A diplomatic cable obtained by Politico earlier this year suggested Wagner’s mining profits could be near $1 billion, while CBS estimated Wagner-related forestry businesses brought in nearly $1 billion in revenue and one gold mine could generate up to $2.7 billion.

In Sudan, Prigozhin runs similar endeavors targeting gold mining rights through a company he allegedly controls called M Invest—at one point under former dictator Omar al-Bashir, the Sudanese government waived its right to own 30% of a subsidiary of M Invest, according to the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project.

Even though al-Bashir is no longer in power, a subsidiary of Prigozhin’s M Invest still runs a Sudanese gold processing plant, the New York Times reported, and Russian groups are responsible for the bulk of a smuggling market that took as much as $1.9 billion worth of gold out of Sudan in 2021, CNN reported (Prigozhin denies ties to the mining company).

While in Russia, Prigozhin got his start in his home country’s catering industry, so in addition to foreign mercenary contracts and mineral rights, Prigozhin-tied entities take in money from “inflated Russian government contracts,” a recent U.K. government report said.

Companies run by Prigozhin were awarded at least $3 billion from 2011 to 2019 in Russian government contracts that said they were for catering, reports Current Time, a U.S. government-backed news outlet.

The paramilitary pays fighters twice as much as the Russian military, the German-Marshall Fund reported last year. Putin admitted that from May last year to May 2023, the Russian state paid more than 86 billion rubles ($940 million) to the Wagner Group.

In addition to his role in the Wagner Group, Prigozhin has also been involved in several other activities that have been seen as being supportive of the Russian government. For example, he has been linked to the Russian troll farm that was responsible for spreading disinformation during the 2016 US presidential election.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner Group and Kremlin relations

Yevgeny Prigozhin is a Russian businessman who is the main funder of the Wagner Group. Prigozhin is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin and has been called “Putin’s chef” because he owns a chain of restaurants that cater to the Russian elite.

Prigozhin has been sanctioned by the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union for his role in the Wagner Group. The sanctions have had a significant impact on Prigozhin’s businesses, but he has continued to fund the Wagner Group.

The Wagner Group is notable for its solid relations with the Russian government and its diverse range of operations. While many private contractors focus on security, the Wagner Group has been involved in a variety of missions throughout conflicts and civil wars.

The Wagner PMC, which was made up of a few thousand mercenaries, existed long before the Ukraine war 2022 broke out. The majority of these were said to be highly trained former elite soldiers. As Russia’s casualties in the Ukraine war mounted, Prigozhin expanded the organization, enlisting Russian prisoners and civilians, as well as foreigners.

In a video circulating online from September 2022, Prigozhin is shown in a Russian prison courtyard addressing a mob of criminals, promising that their sentences will be shortened if they served in Ukraine for six months.

The Wagner Group’s recruiting activities have gone well beyond Russia, with research uncovering recruitment content posted on social media sites in 16 languages, including French, Spanish, Vietnamese, and Polish. Some foreign armed forces, such as Nepalese soldiers in India’s service, have reportedly joined Prigozhin’s mercenaries.

Whatever the case may be, there is no doubt that Prigozhin is a key figure in the Wagner Group. The group’s activities are closely aligned with Russian foreign policy objectives, and Prigozhin’s financial support is essential to the group’s operations.

March for justice

On June 24, mercenaries from the Wagner Group moved to within 200 km of Moscow before turning back. It was a massive shock to the country, leaving Russians of all stripes and the Kremlin reeling.

It was named “march for justice” by Prigozhin. He said his blitz was the end of a long-running conflict with Russia’s senior military leadership, whom he has long accused of failing to contribute enough to the war effort. He went further this time, accusing them of deceiving the president about the origins of the war and how it has progressed.

Putin perceived Prigozhin’s power maneuver as a challenge to his leadership, referring to it as a “mutiny” and a “betrayal.” The Russian president’s enraged broadcast statement on June 24 contrasted sharply with his carefully crafted, confident appearances since commencing Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Putin professed in it that anyone involved would face consequences.

On the evening of June 24, the Kremlin announced that Putin’s ally, Belarussian President Aleksandr Lukashenka, had brokered an agreement in which Prigozhin won amnesty for Wagner personnel who had joined the rebellion, the opportunity to join the regular army for those who had not, and exile to Belarus for himself.

The Kremlin’s account of the agreement raised more concerns than it answered. Whatever Putin’s motivations, giving Lukashenka credit for saving the day strains credibility and appears to be an uncomfortable tale for the Russian leader. It shows a level of vulnerability and a lack of options on the part of the latter.

It’s unclear who mediated the deal or what kind of threats were matched with the apparent reprieve offered to Prigozhin. In the aftermath of the upheaval, Putin confirmed for the first time that the state had long funded Wagner and implied that the group may have misused funds, indicating one possible lever Putin held over Prigozhin.

With Putin’s track record of silence, it’s tough to believe that anyone he’s labelled a traitor will be able to live out their days in peace. However, it is plausible that the Kremlin values or fears Prigozhin and his fighters enough to allow them to survive.

On June 27, Lukashenka acknowledged that Prigozhin had arrived in Belarus, but that Wagner’s mercenaries remained in Russia and Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine.

Challenges to Wagner and Kremlin

Few friends and allies sought out Putin as he faced the most difficult challenge to his reign yet. Indeed, the general attitude among both partners and foes was to keep out of the conflict.

The sluggish stream of foreign leaders’ outreach to the Kremlin depicts a Putin who may be more isolated than ever, at least during his momentary loss of control. He only met the leaders of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, as well as Belarus’ Lukashenka, among the former Soviet Union’s neighbors.

Only Turkey, Iran, and Qatar sent offers of support to the Kremlin as events progressed. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that he is willing to assist in the search for a “peaceful resolution” and emphasized the significance of acting with common sense. On  July 10, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has agreed to back Sweden’s bid to join NATO after a year of blocking the move, citing Turkish security concerns including EU membership.

Notably, China – on which Putin has grown increasingly reliant as a trading partner and UN Security Council ally – waited until Prigozhin had turned his soldiers around before intervening. Finally, Beijing reiterated its commitment to Russia as a “friendly neighbour and comprehensive strategic partner.” Even so, the outreach did not come from Chinese President Xi Jinping, who had not spoken directly with Putin yet.

Wagner’s future is in jeopardy, as is its position as a tool of Russian power in the faraway regions where it works. The evacuation of Prigozhin and those who may follow him to Belarus, along with the demand that the rest of Wagner return home or join the army, appears to be the death knell for Wagner’s involvement as an independent fighting force in Ukraine.

On 26 June, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Wagner’s actions in Russia will not affect its operations in Africa. He added that the work of Wagner’s “military instructors” in the Central African Republic and Mali will continue, perhaps from a new base in Belarus. But, in a sign that Moscow’s purges may reach further, on 27 June, the Saudi-owned news channel Al-Hadath reported that three high-ranking Wagner Group commanders were detained at Syria’s Khmeimim air base and police visited Wagner headquarters in the cities of Damascus, Deir al-Zour and Hama.

Summary

Wagne group is a private military company founded by Dmitry Utkin and Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2014. Since then they are helping Russian military forces to combat war in Ukraine. They expanded their numbers of soldiers and became a frontline force for Russia.

They recruit soldiers from all over the world but they also enlisted a lot of criminals from Russian prisons. They performed many contract based operations in Africa and other countries. This private paramilitary organization is generating a lot of money through natural resources and contracts from clients like Russian government paid 86 billions rubles in May 2022.

The evidence suggests that they are actually commanding soldiers in the Central African Republic’s outlying territories, which has aided Touadera by putting down rebel groups.

Their presence is strong in Mali. They are clearly attempting something similar in that they are assisting the present military junta in maintaining control of the country. However, Mali is dealing with 2 separate Islamist insurgencies.

There is a lot of insurgent activity. And, while Wagner would want to get access to raw material contracts and more gold in Mali, it is unclear whether they will be successful, because Mali’s gold is largely controlled by huge Western companies that are highly sophisticated.

And there are possibly a few dozen forces in Sudan, where they don’t appear to be engaged in battle in the present civil conflict, where Wagner is currently located. However, they are involved in the gold trade.

The fourth location is in Libya, in Eastern Libya, where they are working with the warlord there, Khalifa Haftar, to ensure that he can stay in position while also guarding oil and gas resources that Russia may find helpful in the future.

Challenges after march for justice, Russia is seems to be weak to Western Union and USA camp. While now analysts and think tanks are figuring out the actual detriment to Kremlin.

Conclusion

Wagner group had benefitted Russian military in Ukraine war and other countries to help them on different issues. It played a key role in Ukraine War since the annexation of Crimea and turned into a bigger player in game of PMCs. This helped Russia to annex Crimea and in Ukraine war to deter opponent forces.

Coming on all the complexity of this group, over the years it expanded and became giant mercenary group of Russia. Now as a lot of information has been exposed about this PMC, the world has seen the implications of Wagner Group. They have built businesses in Africa and share in oilfields of different countries for providing security to them.

We came to know about its comprehensive introduction to Wagner Group including its origin and its web of connections.

International Community is watching it in different lens. This will give a broad vision of their portfolio which has been created in last years but after the expulsion of group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and his fighters to Belarus, but at his time the future of Wagner Group cannot be predicted correctly.

[1] Lauder, Matthew. (2018). Wolves of the russian spring – an examination of the night wolves as a proxy for the russian government – 2018. 18. Contrary to most portrayals by the mainstream media of the Night Wolves Motorcycle Club (MC) as Russia’s equivalent to the Hell’s Angels, the organization is not an outlaw motorcycle gang – which implies a rejection of mainstream culture, strict loyalty to the biker club rather than to the state and deep involvement in criminal enterprises. Rather, the biker image of the Night Wolves is a carefully curated façade meant to provide a semblance of rebelliousness all while the group serves as a tool of the state. The Night Wolves exemplify a larger trend by the Russian government to outsource activities to non-state actors that are traditionally conducted by the state intelligence and defence entities. These outsourced activities include, but are not limited to, intelligence collection, propaganda dissemination, agitation and provocation, combat operations and tailored violence, including intimidation and targeted assassination.