Part I – The Washington Factor

The reasons of split between Rawalpindi and Banigala, leading to Imran Khan’s ouster from power remain a mystery to many while it is an established fact that Rawalpindi and Aabpara, jointly, paved Imran Khan’s way to the power in the first place. Before explaining the genesis of the split, it is imperative to note that Rawalpindi and Aabpara are two different entities with usual professional rivalry that, occasionally, reaches to conformation. But, from June 2019 to date, we take Rawalpindi and Aabpara as one for sake of simplicity.

Imran Khan was the most vocal, loudly and ferociously, against the drone strikes in Pakistan and Afghanistan during the War On Terror (WOT). His statements used to make it to the headlines in international media, adding to challenges for the US in seamless continuity of the drone program. Political oversight of all military operations abroad by the United States is an essential process, even if it is a mere formality. Allegedly, this was Senator Joe Biden that was tasked with Af-Pak drone program’s oversight. The government of Pakistan People’s Party, during which the country observed the highest number of drone attacks, awarded Senator Joe Biden with the ‘Crescent of Pakistan’ (Hilal-i-Pakistan) in 2008. However, allegedly, Senator Joe Biden failed miserably in convincing Imran Khan to change or soften his stance against the drone strikes taking place in Pakistan and Afghanistan. This was the beginning of a bitter and troubled history that Imran Khan and Joe Biden share till date.

Just as Imran Khan did not consider the ramifications while arranging to file a presidential reference against Qazi Faiz Isa and inappropriately relieving Syed Asim Munir of his post as DG ISI. In the same way, Imran Khan, in defiance of Senator Joe Biden, could not have imagined that one day the man would ascend to the presidency of the United States and become the most powerful individual on earth. It certainly highlights the reason for the conspicuous lack of communication between Islamabad and Washington, despite Islamabad’s avid lobbying and desperate efforts even for a phone call from Joe Biden when he took charge of the Oval Office. Otherwise, it was the same Imran Khan who was very well received and lauded at the Oval Office in Washington by Donald Trump. The history between Imran Khan and Joe Biden was the first challenge to defrost the frosty relations between Islamabad and Washington. However, during August 2021 at the time of swift withdrawal of the US, NATO and other Allied Forces from Afghanistan, the sequence of unfolding events added greatly to the challenge, if not worsened it.

Allegedly, the United States requested logistic support from Pakistan to ensure its’ secure withdrawal from Afghanistan. Subsequently, a second request was made for temporary accommodation of US and NATO forces in Pakistan. A third request was also made for the provision of refuge or asylum for approximately thirty-five thousand (35,000) Afghans those had been serving US, NATO and Allied Forces as informants, interpreters and messengers etc. A hefty amount in lieu of aid, CSF and debt relief was offered if Pakistan was to honour these requests. However, Imran Khan, the then Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, declined all those three requests. Everything is there in media and news reports with more explicit details if anyone is interested to explore them.

An essential aspect that demands attention and shouldn’t be overlooked, is the historical dynamics and characterization of Pakistan-US relations which has primarily been between Rawalpindi and Washington (Pentagon) rather than Islamabad and the Oval Office. Washington’s repeated requests were met with constant refusal at Islamabad, prompting it to pressurize Rawalpindi for necessary intervention. Rawalpindi (and Aabpara) that had already made rigorous efforts in facilitation to honour the requests, conveyed its inability and helplessness to Washington in this regard. At the Oval Office in Washington, Joe Biden was under immense domestic and external pressure for his hasty decision of swift withdrawal from Afghanistan which was being perceived as a humiliating defeat and even termed as the beginning of decline of the US as the sole global power. The unnecessary circulation of the pictures of the US soldiers landing at Islamabad Airport and an absolutely unnecessary exposure of our spy chief at the Serena Hotel in Kabul, Afghanistan while sipping Qahwa, was noted seriously and was taken as intimidating gesture.  There was no communication between Islamabad and Washington, already. Washington didn’t accept Rawalpindi’s inability, and decided for a temporary suspension of its ties with Rawalpindi as a means of exerting pressure.

Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) enjoys good affiliation and association with Joe Biden and his associates, stemming from the days of his alleged oversight of the drone program in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The PPP was carefully monitoring the rapid progression of relations between Islamabad, Rawalpindi, and Washington. A former Pakistani ambassador to the US, designated by the PPP government, took his party leadership in confidence to devise a strategy to exploit the evolving situation. Reportedly, PPP Chairman Bilawal Zardari undertook 02-03 visits to the US to finalize the plan and engage with other stakeholders. While efforts were made to maintain secrecy, one of the visits became the subject of social media debate when a Pakistani individual captured and shared it over Twitter, an image of Bilawal Zardari sitting alone on a bench after leaving the airport. Subsequently, following the completion of the plan, the former diplomat, who has access to influential circles in the United States, reportedly traveled to the UK under the banner of “Saath Saath Door Door Forum” to meet another key player of the pan, Nawaz Sharif. After his nod, the plan was good to be executed. Rawalpindi was assured of the resumption of stagnant relations with Washington by the PPP, given Rawalpindi maintained “neutrality” during PPP’s efforts to dethrone Imran Khan. The matter of Yousuf Raza Gilani in the Senate elections was a test case to evaluate Rawalpindi’s “neutrality”. Rest of the details were exposed by an investigative journalist, Ahmed Noorani, in his report which is available on the website of ‘Fact Focus’.

Islamabad’s refusal in accepting Washington’s requests and rebuffing Rawalpindi’s pressure for compliance can be categorized as the first out of four (04) major reasons of souring relations between Rawalpindi and Banigala which eventually ended in direct confrontation. India — this was one of the reasons behind Rawalpindi’s prompt acceptance of PPP’s offer. Let’s recall a speech of a senior Pak Army official, as the chief guest, at a military educational institution in Rawalpindi on India’s Republic Day in 2014. He opined that India is not a bigger threat to Pakistan, extremism / terrorism is. The choice of the date, occasion, and venue to deliver the statement carries immense significance. Notably, this same high-ranking military official ascended to the position of Chief of Army Staff in subsequent years.
The account of an alleged encounter between a high-ranking officer of Pakistan’s intelligence agency and his Indian counterpart during a polo match in London is rumored to have catalyzed back-channel and military diplomacy aimed at fostering peace between the two countries. Moreover, it would be interesting to know the person with whom Ajit Doval engaged in negotiations — the negotiations, mediated by the UAE Royals and hosted by the British.