III – The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP)

Two preceding write-ups explained how Washington and New Delhi might have caused the rift between Rawalpindi and Bani Gala, leading to Imran Khan’s removal from power. Here is a quick recap;

The Washington Factor — we traced it back to the history between Imran Khan and Joe Biden during the US drone program in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Despite Imran Khan’s warm welcome by former President Trump at the Oval Office, President Biden did not establish contact with him, even during the US withdrawal from Afghanistan when Pakistan’s help was badly needed. Three requests; for logistical support, Permission for a limited stay of the US, NATO and Allied Forces in Pakistan till their further deployment elsewhere, and hosting of +34,000 Afghan refugees, were flatly rejected by Imran Khan despite pressure from Rawalpindi Aabpara and Washington, leading to Washington’s severed communications with both Islamabad and Rawalpindi. It was supplemented by over-exposure of Pakistan’s spy chief at Kabul and viral images of US soldiers landing at Islamabad airport.

The New Delhi Factor — Rawalpindi and New Delhi’s military diplomacy and backchannel peace efforts were quite successful until the events of Pulwama Attack and India’s abrogation of Article 370. Perhaps, Rawalpindi and New Delhi could have managed the events but Imran Khan’s anti-India stance at every forum complicated the peace process. Rawalpindi noted it as a deliberate move to sabotage establishment-led peace-building efforts with New Delhi. With reference to Article 370’s abrogation, a pertinent point to note is, that either New Delhi was misleading Rawalpindi by entangling it in negotiations or New Delhi took such a huge step after some assurance from certain regional or global powers that there wouldn’t be any retaliation from Pakistan. The speculative chatter and rumors during Khan’s visit to Washington and unusual welcoming protocol given to Pakistan’s COAS support the hypothesis of New Delhi’s getting a silent nod.

Some internal factors and events also significant to note including, the extension in the army chief’s service, the appointment of DG ISI, the unnecessary dragging of Rawalpindi and Aabpara in every matter by PTI leadership, and seeking the help from the establishment even for insignificant and small issues. Let’s analyze the possible role by the PPP, domestically, to capitalize on external factors. This factor was the last nail in the coffin.

PPP — It would be important to remember here that the party leadership has had personal relations with Joe Biden since he was a Senator Joe Biden who was allegedly responsible, at that time, for overseeing the ongoing drone program in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The PPP, which was keeping a close eye on the growing rift between Rawalpindi and Bani Gala as well as Rawalpindi and Washington, moved to take advantage of this opportunity. The plan was, allegedly, crafted by a former Pakistani ambassador to the US who is known in some powerful circles there. He leveraged PPP’s relations and experience with Joe Biden, his own personal influence and possible implications of Imran Khan’s scheduled visit to Russia to get Washington to promise full but tacit support. Another important political leader, based in London, was also taken into confidence and his full support was secured for the same plan.

A probable reason of Rawalpindi becoming complicit in it, could be the fact that the relations between Rawalpindi and Washington had become almost non-existent. For Rawalpindi, it was very important to get Washington’s support on important matters like FATF and the negotiations with the World Bank. It appears that, initially, Rawalpindi reluctantly joined the plan to confine Bani Gala to Bani Gala only. However, the matters like rising inflations, PTI’s flawed perfomace in managing economy, and poor governance and administration might have expedited the events. Diplomatic challenges at external fronts were also getting on the nerves of people sitting at Rawalpindi. The prime ones were, the impact of Imran Khan’s anti-China statements during 2014 sit-in and Razzak Dawood’s (Imran Khan’s federal minister of state) statement hitting at Beijing after forming the government. It certainly made Beijing very cautious and careful. Scheduled joint meetings on CPEC were also not being held. On the other hand, Riyadh was not happy with Islamabad’s tilting towards Istanbul and it didn’t hesitate to express its displeasure by preventing Pakistan from participating in the conference in Malaysia. Though, it was Pakistan that proposed to form a global TV channel to counter Islamophobia jointly. Riyadh noted this move as an attempt to marginalize the role of the OIC. The way Riyadh got its USD 02 billion back from Islamabad that it had deposited in state treasury left no doubt in anyone’s mind. Foreign exchange reserves were depleting. We can assume that all these factors forced Rawalpindi to get in cohort with PPP. Although, there might have been quite a few better alternatives that Rawalpindi could have executed at its own.

Writing subsequent events those took place at the Sindh House and the Prime House will be a mere waste time as they are imprinted on the hearts and minds of every concerned citizen of Pakistan. Especially the one where people watched the then Prime Minister, Imran Khan, leaving the PM House in his vehicle, alone, after picking up his personal diary from office. From his vehicle while heading to Bani Gala with a smile on his face, he waived at the media people standing at the entrance of the PM House.  This was the official announcement of the divorce between Rawalpindi and Bani Gala. Rawalpindi was sure, Bani Gala is confined and Restricted to Bani Gala only.

• “I have never seen a more democratic army chief than Gen. Bajwa”.
• “Gen. Bajwa request Gulf countries for money for Pakistan. Although it was not his job”.
• “Gen. Bajwa and I are on the same page. He is helping us fully in every way”.

The affair between Rawalpindi and Bani Gala, which started with the above statements, lasted only for three and a half years, approx. However, what happened next, and still continues to happen, no one would ever have thought of it even in his wildest imaginations.

We just connected the dots while looking at contemporary history to establish the possible roles of Washington, New Delhi and the PPP in causing the split between Rawalpindi (Aabpara) and Bani Gala. Moreover, personality clash, ego, personal beliefs and backgrounds of the two important figures sitting in both the ‘High Places’ also played critical roles. All these personal differences, I call them the fourth main reason and I will summarize them at an appropriate and suitable time.

As I am writing these words, it’s been more than 50 hours since two PTI officials, Azhar Mashwani and Shahid Hussain, were abducted by unknown persons and their whereabouts are still unknown. Hassan Niazi, an advocate, had to celebrate his birthday in prison. You are wise enough to understand my concerns and reservations.