II — New Delhi Factor
The previous write-up explained how Washington became one out four prime reasons of the split between Rawalpindi and Bani Gala that eventually ended in Imran Khan’s ouster from the power.
New Delhi — can be categorized as another one. Let’s recall our memories of a speech of a senior Pak Army official that he delivered as the chief guest at a military educational institution in Rawalpindi on India’s Republic Day in 2014, asserting that India poses no greater threat to Pakistan but extremism/terrorism does. The choice of the date, occasion, and venue to deliver the statement is highly significant, especially given that this same military official, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, was later became the Chief of Army Staff.
Politics — a labyrinth and dangerous game in Pakistan, is unique and distinctive in its’ nature, structure and evaluation with decisions affecting national interests and national security originating jointly from Rawalpindi and Aabpara. Specifically, when it comes to defense, foreign policy, and national security, including decisions and policies towards the US, China, India, and Afghanistan. Now, even economic decisions fall under their purview. It remains a mystery that every political (civilian) government that attempted to address Pakistan-India relations, couldn’t sustain itself and faced a quick dissolution or an early end. It was, perhaps, for the first time in the history that the establishment was directly making serious and successful efforts in normalization of bilateral relations with India using military diplomacy and back-channels after Gen. Bajwa became the COAS. The success was evident from the fact that both, Pakistan and India, were strictly observing ceasefire on the Line of Control (LOC). Military diplomacy and back-channels commenced after a meeting between two high-ranking intelligence officers of Pakistan and India during a polo match that was played in the UK. This initial but informal encounter culminated in the meetings between top officials from our establishment and India’s NSA, Ajit Doval. (Much has been documented in the media regarding this entire process. Therefore, for sake of brevity, I will not delve into the specifics details. Those interested in exploring it further, shouldn’t ignore the articles of Praveen Swami for “The Print”). Meanwhile, Imran Khan’s PTI had established its government and the establishment was keeping the civil government informed of the necessary and relevant details. Being at the “same page” then, IK and PTI government raised no objection to it.
However, two successive events changed the entire situation. First — “Pulwama Attack” (February 14, 2019) and the second — “Abrogation of Article 370 in Indian Occupied Kashmir” (August 06, 2019). Pulwama Attack lacks concrete and definitive information that would conclusively implicate either India or Pakistan. There is, certainly, a possibility that a third party might have orchestrated it as a response to the improvements in the bilateral relationship between the two countries. Contextual realities, circumstantial evidences and rational actualities during that period of time strongly disprove Pakistan’s involvement in the aforementioned occurrence. Regardless of the causation, the event inflicted substantial damage and dealt a significant setback to the efforts of our establishment aimed at fostering mutual relations.
The abrogation of Article 370 by India in Indian Occupied Kashmir shouldn’t have come as a surprise to Pakistan’s policymakers. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had been vocal about this issue and had kept it as a top agenda point in its political manifesto. The BJP leadership was fully determined to accomplish this task and had been announcing it, publically, during political rallies and campaigns. However, the reaction of the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, was loud and strong while the establishment was working hard to avoid damaging the peace efforts made with India through military diplomacy and back channels.
During Gen. Bajwa’s first term as Army Chief, not just terrorism in Pakistan was almost entirely contained but the armed struggle for the right of self-determination in Indian Occupied Kashmir too, was at its lowest level in history. Gen. Bajwa successfully neutralized extremist groups and organizations in Pakistan. It, indirectly and directly, resulted in the ongoing armed struggle for self-determination in Indian Occupied Kashmir remaining at its lowest level. Gen. Bajwa attributed this success to his effective policies although he claimed that he was under pressure from the ‘hawks’ and even from the Prime Minister, Imran Khan, to do the ‘needful’ in Kashmir which he claimed, he sustained. The British High Commissioner, Christian Turner, revealed to a limited number of people that Gen. Bajwa had been making requests to arrange some concessions from India regarding revoking the abrogation of Article 370 in Indian Occupied Kashmir. Though, Pakistan’s Foreign Office or ISPR has not confirmed or denied this piece of information.
Either for political gains or to genuinely support Kashmir Cause, Imran Khan, as the Prime Minister of Pakistan, kept highlighting the Kashmir issue worldwide. He even warned the world, in an unforgettable speech at the United Nations that Pakistan would go to any extent to defend itself in case of any possible aggression by India. India, which had been blaming Pakistan for the Pulwama attack, began pushing for the resumption of trade between the two countries to test Pakistan’s sincerity in its peace efforts. Remember? Imran Khan, as de-facto Trade and Finance Minister, once approved the summary for the resumption of trade with India but canceled it as Prime Minister the next day, causing much controversy. It genuinely upset the establishment. It is pertinent to note that despite India’s strong protest, the Kashmir issue was mentioned in the OIC conference. Reportedly, this was one of Khan’s close aides who strongly advised to disagree to Rawalpindi’s plans as it might have led to Khan’s and his party’s political demise. In his views, Rawalpindi would try to pin this on him and his party.
Imran Khan’s frequent mention of the Kashmir issue on every occasion and forum was causing diplomatic troubles for India. It was also reversing the outcomes of military diplomacy and back channels that had been established for peace between Pakistan and India. It became a genuine cause of concern at Rawalpindi and was considered it as a deliberate attempt to derail peace process. Imran Khan’s defiance and struggle for Kashmir cause was not perceived well at Rawalpindi (Aabpara) and it caused further widening of the gap between Bani Gala and Rawalpindi.
Hassan Saleem Awan is a management consultant, strategic communication professional and a former banker.
